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By demonstrating over a land area adjoining the ancient Preah Vihear temple complex last week ahead of the third anniversary of Thailand's latest military coup on Sept 19, a faction of the royalist-nationalist People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) shrewdly stole the thunder that was supposed to belong to the pro-Thaksin Shinawatra red-shirted movement. Weeks of build-up to the red shirts' anti-coup anniversary protest were eclipsed by the yellow shirts' days of escalation from patriotism and nationalism to chauvinism and veiled irredentism.

Under the aegis of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), the red shirts and their sit-ins at public gathering areas are a recurrent phenomenon. Their largest and most sustained street demonstration from late March to the Songkran riots has been instructive for them. They can protest all they want but they do not have the tipping point that comes with the right backing.

The red shirts have since acted with more restraint. As an evolving social movement, their numbers are wide but increasingly divided along the fault lines of Thaksin Shinawatra and the coup.

All reds are anti-coup. Yet there are many more non-reds who are also anti-coup and anti-post coup. Thaksin is thus a walking divisiveness in exile, even to the reds, and especially among anti-coup groups. The reds will now work on another build-up for their protest next month. Their disbandment around midnight last Saturday, early by their own standards, stood in deliberate contrast to what the yellows were doing near Preah Vihear temple.

Also a developing social movement, the PAD has become a leading agenda setter with quasi-veto power over political outcomes. They can prevent outcomes as well as determine them under certain circumstances. The drawn-out police chief appointment is a case in point.

Preah Vihear is an ongoing controversy. At issue is how far to reach back in history. Going back a century means righting the wrongs of French imperialist cartography that betrayed agreed watershed demarcation. Going back to 1962 means abiding by international law that awarded the temple to Cambodia. In the decades since, both Thais and Cambodians have roundly benefited from border trade and tourism. While Phnom Penh has registered the temple as a World Heritage Site, both the Thais and the Cambodians need to jointly develop the adjoining 4.6sqkm. The area is not much good to Thailand without the temple. Possession of the temple is equally not as useful without its land approach. And Bangkok would oppose unilateral registration of the contested land if it emerges.

While it has been detrimental to local livelihoods, the continuing stalemate over Preah Vihear and its landscape has fuelled the Thai political crisis. It was a hot potato for the two elected governments last year, and it will be a thorn in the side of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's government in the coming weeks.

What the PAD protesters have done near Preah Vihear bears a number of ramifications. In the short term, it diverted the spotlight from the reds. In the longer term, however, it may well turn off some of the rank-and-file yellows and the pro-Establishment non-yellows who are pro-coup and anti-Thaksin. This dilemma was reflected in the absence of the PAD's main leadership who did not join the protest in Si Sa Ket province. Instead, a second-tier leader spearheaded the march.

Thai-Cambodian relations will not benefit from the PAD's posturing. The bilateral relationship has deteriorated steadily since the torching of the Thai embassy in Phnom Penh in early 2003. Historical tensions run deep on both sides. The bilateral spat and occasional armed skirmishes will cast a cloud over the upcoming Asean summit next month. It will also expose yet another dimension of Asean's structural impotence and operational inefficacy, notwithstanding the problematic Asean Charter. The Thai-Cambodian stand-off will thus have to be resolved bilaterally. Nationalist sentiments that verge on xenophobia, chauvinism and irredentism must be kept at bay.

At home, the Preah Vihear imbroglio is likely to be played for domestic gains. The PAD protests in Si Sa Ket were under the nose of the 2nd Infantry Division, whose units entered service in the dispersal and suppression of the red-shirted riots in Bangkok on April 13. That these units were uninvolved in preventing the yellows to go so far, suggests the PAD can simply get away with more than their arch-nemesis. They seem to have an enigmatic entitlement about them, an aura and attitude that they can always get their way.

The political capital from the PAD's Preah Vihear wrath may also be parlayed to determine domestic outcomes. With its locomotives all revved up and ready to rumble, the PAD can now turn to its domestic preferences. It can now bring even more pressure to bear on the Abhisit government to go its way, particularly on the appointment of the new police chief, concurrently stirring a royalist-nationalist tide for its New Politics Party ahead of the next polls.

The writer is Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University.

Bangkok Post
Writer: Thitinan Pongsudhirak
Published: 23/09/2009 at 12:00 AM
Newspaper section: News