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HAVE YOU heard about the quiet coup breaking out any time now?

I was unpleasantly surprised. I told him that if it was a "quiet" coup, then we aren't supposed to know it's happening.

But, he countered, everybody is talking about a quiet coup. Had I missed a big story? But then, he was surprised that nothing had changed despite this quiet coup. If the prime minister is still here and his government remains intact, what's the point of a quiet coup?

"That's the whole point. The rumour-mongers want a coup that isn't really a coup so that they can blame the other party for doing something bad without them doing it," I explained.

I must confess I didn't really know who was behind the quiet coup - or whether there was any truth to the rumour.

To be very frank, I didn't even know whether there were rumours flying around to that effect. But I didn't want to disappoint my friend. If you are really trendy, you don't want to upset him by telling him no news is good news.

So, I comforted him by confirming to him that whispering "Have you heard about the quiet coup?" is the "in" thing now. It's the latest tactic being used by both the red and yellow shirts against each other - by putting the blame on the green and khaki.

But that doesn't necessarily make the quiet coup rumour any more credible than speculation of a real coup, I insisted.

There was no point in pursuing this never-ending debate with my Twitter-crazed friend, who has been getting "breaking news" almost every minute of the day, even in his sleep. But I decided to play along with his guessing game. The rumour began, I told him, when the premier convinced the police chief (a khaki man) to take a vacation so that he (the PM) could name an acting chief.

The police chief's elder brother, who happens to be the defence minister (a man in green), was upset about that move. He then talked to his very good friend, the Army chief (another green man) who, you guessed it, got upset too.

The khaki man at first wanted to show that he could be defiant against the premier - so he said he wasn't going on vacation, despite the premier's insistence to that effect.

His brother then got his secretary to declare to reporters that the khaki-green "family" wouldn't take it lying down.

That, I presume, was when some self-styled pundits started talking about a "quiet coup".

The premier ran around for a while and finally got the police chief to go South after having visited China. At the same time, the defence minister got the top brass to come to his house on his 64th birthday, in full force.

That's when the same group of self-appointed experts came up with their own confirmation that this was the outgrowth of the quiet coup in progress.

The Army chief leading his officers to wish the defence minister, who is their boss, many happy returns, should be seen as a very normal tradition.

But my friend countered by accusing me of being naive. "The line-up at the defence minister's house that day was a clear signal sent to the premier that they could, if they wanted to, stage a coup anytime."

I suggested to him that he was probably suffering from the disease known as "coup-phobia" that has infected many Thais. Those commanders may be able to order tanks and troops out onto the streets to force out the government, but they don't have a clue how to run the country. The last coup was a disaster. You can still see the results of that utter failure today.

"That's why they call it a quiet coup - which means all they can do is to very politely and obediently pretend to threaten a coup if the civilian leaders try to ignore their sensitivities about khaki-green brotherhood, connections and fraternity."

But my friend pointed to another "symptom" of a quiet coup. He said the defence minister had refused to go to Singapore for a scheduled meeting with his counterpart because he wanted to send a clear message of defiance to the premier. Only a personal plea from the prime minister changed his mind. It could have exploded into a major incident, he said.

I told my news junkie friend: "That's not a quiet coup. That's called sulking." And sulking doesn't overthrow governments. Not yet anyway.