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Thailand has lived through 18 military coups d'etat so far. The prospect of a future one cannot be written off.

Recent frosty relations between key political actors are feared by some quarters to be a conduit for a military showdown with the government.

It has been said that the military revolt is cyclical. Self-interested politicians win office, mess up accountability and plunge the country into crisis. The situation begs for a "knight on a white horse" and it is almost a knee-jerk reaction that when an impasse needs breaking, the military is called into action.

The last time tanks rolled on to the streets of the capital was when the Council for National Security drove Thaksin Shinawatra out of the prime minister's office on Sept 19, 2006.

Thaksin commanded the most powerful Thai Rak Thai Party which ruled the government solo, with virtually limitless money and might to keep the administration seemingly indestructible.

It was a glaring case of what many have described as a solidly-anchored autocracy which could only be brought down by a military coup.

Disputable though that may be, Thais appear to have grown accustomed to the coups d'etat, which are actually a problem and not a solution to the national malaise.

Often when politicians show their true, corrupt colours, it is the people and pressure groups who call for the military to leave their barracks and stage "an intervention".

The armed forces do their own litmus test of the prevailing public sentiment before deciding on a takeover. But of course public sentiment alone does not suffice in seizing a government. A military coup can be triggered by one or a host of conditions, most notably excessive corruption in government, blatant interference of politicians in the working of civil servants for vested gain, and dismissal of armed forces leaders, especially the army chief, which illustrates the unresolved friction between the military and the government.

The Thaksin ouster, however, has added another reason for the coup. Thaksin faced an allegation of indulging in acts of lese majeste while in office, something the convicted former prime minister has repeatedly denied. For the military, protecting the crown justifies engineering a coup, as it fulfils the armed forces' sworn duty to serve and uphold the monarchy, while striking a chord with people who want to see the highest institution untainted.

Back to the coup rumours. Some top-level developments over the past few weeks have made some people jittery. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva was believed to have been prepared to give police chief Patcharawat Wongsuwon his marching orders for allegedly hindering the investigation into the attempt on the life of Sondhi Limthongkul, the firebrand co-leader of the government-leaning People's Alliance for Democracy.

Mr Abhisit ended up not purging Pol Gen Patcharawat. The police chief was ordered on a special mission to the far South to follow up on anti-insurgent investigations just days after he returned from a working trip to China. All the while, an acting police chief had been named to run the police force.

Although Pol Gen Patcharawat has reported back to work, he is likely to remain out of active duty until his retirement at the end of next month.

The government's treatment of Pol Gen Patcharawat is believed to have upset his brother, Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon.

Gen Prawit himself has been embroiled in the Sondhi case, after media outlets affiliated with the PAD claimed the minister was involved in the plot against Mr Sondhi, an accusation the defence minister denies.

Observers said that by sidelining Pol Gen Patcharawat, Mr Abhisit may have added credence to the PAD's allegation that the police chief was an obstacle to the Sondhi investigation.

The Sondhi case pushed Mr Abhisit into an even tighter spot because he was perceived as being "insensitive" towards the military regarding its alleged involvement in the murder attempt.

The PM was seen as taking a tough stand against the military. Some were convinced he was dramatising this in order to make it look as though he was not submissive to the men in green.

But it seems Mr Abhisit may have overplayed his role, much to the annoyance of Gen Prawit.

Some military top brass are disappointed that the government has seemingly gone out of its way for the Sondhi case. It is an open secret that the Democrat Party-led government came to power after the military lobbied politicians to defect from the now-dissolved People Power Party. The lobbying reportedly took place in the military compound with the help of Gen Prawit, Commander-in-Chief Anupong Paojinda and Chief-of-Staff Prayuth Chan-ocha.

A highly-placed source said Gen Prawit is beginning to feel the government has been ungrateful for what he has done for it and has pondered resigning as defence minister. He had earlier insisted that Mr Abhisit allow his brother Pol Gen Patcharawat to remain police chief until his mandatory retirement five weeks from now.

The political odds for the government do not look promising, with the PAD repeatedly calling for Gen Anupong to be dismissed from the position of army chief for "doing nothing" to protect the monarchy in light of the red shirts' lodging the petition for a royal pardon for Thaksin. The petition is widely interpreted as turning the pressure on His Majesty the King.

The scent of a possible coup also wisped out when the armed forces leaders took an official trip together to Singapore last week. Prompong Nopparit, the Puea Thai Party spokesman, claimed Newin Chidchob, mentor of the key coalition partner Bhumjaithai Party, had met the armed forces leaders and laid out a plan to mobilise party supporters to clash with the red shirts on Monday so as to set the conditions for a military intervention.

No confrontation occurred, however.

In the final analysis, rumours about a coup are likely to remain unsubstantiated. Gen Anupong, criticised for being aloof, remains in the army top seat. The ball game may change if and when Gen Prayuth, one of the Queen's Guards credited for his strong leadership and unquestionable dedication to the monarchy, succeeds Gen Anupong.

Even so, Gen Prayuth's attributes alone are by no means an indication that he will stage a coup in the future. After all, the general has pacified the tension brought on by the Patcharawat-Prawit saga by suggesting to Mr Abhisit that he should be more considerate with the military and in the way he deals with the Patcharawat factor.

Mr Abhisit subsequently allowed Pol Gen Patcharawat to keep his police chief post until his retirement.

Considering that, perhaps a "soft coup" has already begun.

Wassana Nanuam reports on military affairs for the Bangkok Post.

Source: Bangkokpost.com
Writer: Wassana Nanuam
Published: 20/08/2009 at 12:00 AM