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Bangkokpost.com
Writer: Suranand Vejjajiva
Published: 24/07/2009 at 12:00 AM

The ups and down of Thai politics certainly is "spicy", as US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton put it. And had she stayed on in Thailand, she would be in for a treat that is even spicier.

For in the coming weeks, starting this Sunday, July 26, the spiciness will become "red hot" as ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has announced a "big surprise" to be revealed on his 60th birthday bash. It is expected to be a new battle cry, as his red-shirt supporters and the opposition Puea Thai Party (PTP) have been gaining steam in the battlefield.

The renewed offensive actually started with the PTP wining two by-elections in Sakon Nakhon and Si Sa Ket provinces last month. That threw the coalition partner Bhumjaithai Party (BJT), led by power broker Newin Chidchob, off course. The BJT and the ruling Democrat Party of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva had hoped to win and stop the red tide on the formal political front, after they won on the streets during the Songkran riots, when the red shirts made a strategic mistake which led to violence and loss of credibility.

The tide, however, has turned.

The supposed exodus of members of Parliament (MPs) from PTP into the BJT did not occur as Mr Newin had hoped. The influence of ex-PM Thaksin has not waned. In fact, it may even have become stronger. So no one dared become a turncoat and risk losing in the next election.

The PTP, which was low in morale before the by-elections, got a boost and became alive again. The "winning" model at those two constituencies will be put to test nationwide. The strategy is three-pronged. During the campaign, PTP officials organised rallies and canvassed door-to-door. At the same time, the red shirts under the banner of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), with their local counterparts, organised separate rallies and approached the grassroots people asking for support. The most important tactic of all was Thaksin himself, who personally made phone calls to public rallies, essentially waging an information war. This three-pronged approach will be adjusted and used in the general election.

The party itself is getting ready. Puea Thai Party is rumoured to have candidates for all 400 electoral districts at the ready. They have asked the candidates to start their meet-and-greet routine, walking around and checking up on the usual political canvassers, evaluate whether they have changed and make a deal with them. They also have to rally grassroots support for their candidacy and collect party membership.

The PTP is also working on forming policies to address the nation's problems. A forum on economic issues was held, with prominent speakers such as Dr Olarn Chaiprawat, one of Thailand's top economic experts. This was designed to show the party's ideas as well as personnel who could become cabinet ministers, thereby erasing the public perception that the PTP lacked qualified people.

The red shirts under the UDD and allied entities are continuing their activities in parallel with Puea Thai, organising themselves into a political movement. They've also recruited members who have become the movement's political workers, attending rallies, participating in activities, and eventually campaigning for PTP candidates, although separate from the main party.

The attempt to seek a royal pardon for Thaksin and the campaign to get a million signatures to support it, have multiple objectives: one is to keep the movement going forward while continuing to gauge and evaluate the public support.

The issue is a controversial one, but because it stirs such a strong sentiment, the UDD will be able to identify who its hard-core supporters are, which is essential in any political campaign. It will also know who are against it and what opposing tactics will be used.

Last is the "information war" and this will not be just Thaksin calling. For a national campaign, the public relations offensive is coming into full swing: websites including Twitter (Thaksinlive); community radio DJs who are the red shirts' main allies; D-station cable TV; newspaper (Red News) and magazine (Voice of Taksin). The channels of communication are all set and Thaksin, ever so dramatic, is set to announce his "Big Surprise".

No one knows what this will be, but by waiting for him to tell us, he already has our attention - the most important factor in an effective communications strategem. And it could not have come at a better time. The government of PM Abhisit is now considerably weakened, literally "sick with the flu" and unable to cope with mounting crises.

The new flu virus has spread beyond control, with the latest officially released figure of almost half a million people infected; 44 have died. Many feel the government misled the public on the seriousness of the flu and failed to provide sufficient information or warning on the symptoms and what appropriate actions must be taken to prevent and treat the illness. The PM and concerned ministers were clearly ill-prepared.

Meanwhile, political conflicts have not subsided. This week PM Abhisit will have to juggle at least two political hot potatoes.

First, the government is trying to downplay the recommendations to amend the Constitution, as studied by the Parliamentary Reconciliation Committee, while the government's coalition partners and opposition PTP, who would benefit from a possible amnesty and changes in the electoral rules, want to push them through.

Second is the case of the assassination attempt on PAD leader Sondhi Limthongkul, which is a sensitive and dangerous matter. Allegations have been thrown around and rumours are swirling about who are the real culprits.

The economy is also a factor. Although there are signs that Thailand is now able to crawl on, a sustainable recovery is not yet in sight. Many questions remain about the workability of the stimulus package, and the government is still sending out conflicting signals about how to effectively tackle the economy.

As the government falters, opportunities open up for Thaksin to present his case and propose alternatives to solving the crises. It remains to be seen whether his "Big Surprise" will convince Thais that they want him back, or if it will be just another public relations ploy to keep him in the spotlight.


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